Congo basin forests: tipping points for biodiversity conservation and resilience (CoForTips)

Reasoning The loss of rainforest is an emerging issue in the Congo Basin. The forests of the Congo Basin have been identified as part of the 10% of the wildest areas on Earth. They have been classified as globally outstanding for their biodiversity , and until now, the level of threat on biodiversity is comparatively low compared to other eco-regions in Africa, as human pressures are low, the rates of endemism are low, and the areas of distribution of species are large (Burgess et al., 2006). However, large scale conversion of forests to other uses (agriculture and mining) driven by population increase, globalization and increased access, with detrimental impacts on biodiversity and associated ecosystems are projected for the Congo Basin. These scenarios suggest that the forests of the Congo basin would find themselves under considerable pressure on both ends of their area of distribution. Scientific objectives Our purpose is to foster a better management of the Congo Basin forests through a better understanding of the dynamics, regime shifts and tipping points of biodiversity and a better definition of the conditions of resilience of social and ecological systems. We have four specific objectives: (a) Map biodiversity resilience and identify stable states and tipping points; (b) Identify drivers, analyse the potential impacts of policy and management decisions on biodiversity and on the SES ability to provide and deliver ecosystem services; (c) Integrate social, economic, governance, ecological and geophysical processes in a platform for modelling scenarios of biodiversity, including sensitivity analysis and levels of uncertainty; (d) Embed the results of our research in the decision making process at the regional and national levels; Role of the national partner IIASA IIASA will be responsible for work package 3 "Integration of processes and modelling", with Dr. Michael Obersteiner as leader. In this WP we will integrate the resilience landscapes mapped out in WP1 with the drivers identified in WP2. The platform will thus incorporate biophysical, ecological and socio-economic drivers and processes. It will address the trends in policies of land allocation, forest preservation and exploitation, as well as on local dynamics of land use practices in forestry, agroforestry and agriculture. WP 3 will develop computing tools allowing inferring, predicting and mapping dynamics and processes at the regional and national scale taking into account uncertainties of the input data and models. The following tasks are part of WP3: Task 3.1. Interlinking global models; Task 3.2. Sensitivity analysis and management of uncertainties; Task 3.3. Prediction of biodiversity outcomes of various governance options; Task 3.4. Conditional and unconditional simulations;

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