Agent-based models to inform economic policies on migration

Large-scale agent-based models (ABMs) hold much promise in analyzing non-equilibrium, self- organizing behaviors of complex economic systems. Despite this potential, the existing methodological shortcomings hinder their wider application: Two major technical challenges are rigorous model validation and effective means for model-based stakeholder engagement. This study advances the state-of-knowledge in these two aspects. Using migration policy assessment in Austria and Russia as examples of application, the first objective of this study is aimed at improving ABM transparency and reliability through the development of a calibration protocol and validation via back-casting. The second objective is aimed at exploring an ABM combined with a gamified user- interface to test its usefulness in stakeholder deliberations on Austrian migration policy. This study will be carried out in two phases as joint research between the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (lead: Dr. Joanne Linnerooth-Bayer) and the Central Economics and Mathematics Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences (lead Dr. Valery Makarov). In the first phase of this research, the two partnering institutions will jointly build prototype ABMs of the Austrian and Russian economies, respectively, building on their extensive ABM development. The models will incorporate an explicit representation of potential migration inflows and the capability to test migration policy packages. The study employs a variety of datasets, such as national accounting, census and firm-level surveys, to rigorously calibrate and validate the developed models. The models will be informed by a literature review and interviews with Austrian stakeholders in the topical migration policy issue. The prototype models will be further implemented on High Performance Computers to ensure scalability and fine granularity of the obtained results. In the second phase, the Austrian proponent will develop an interactive graphical user-interface that gamifies the dynamic representation of migration policy choice. The user-interface will be tested in a mock stakeholder setting to explore its usefulness for stakeholder dialogue and its potential for extending to a real-world policy exercise The research contributes to emerging literature on large-scale ABMs by being one of the first studies to calibrate ABMs to the historical trends of major economic variables. The study will also be one of the first to pilot the use of large ABMs in an experimental gamified stakeholder process. The scientific outputs of this study will hence be of interest to wide international audiences in fields such as computational economics, simulation games, stakeholder analyses, and migration policy.

No additional funding sources recorded.